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Longer-term seeding effects on epidemic processes: a network approach

Authors Gergely Ódor, Domonkos Czifra, Júlia Komjáthy, László Lovász, Márton Karsai
Publication date 2022-03-26

In this paper we touch upon three phenomena observed in real life as well as in simulations; in one case, we state mathematical results about the appearance of the phenomenon on arbitrary graphs (networks) under rather general conditions. We discuss a phenomenon of critical fluctuations, demonstrating that an epidemic can behave very differently even if it runs on the same network, with the same transmission probabilities and started from the same initial seeds. We explore a connection between the geographic distribution and intensity of the spreading epidemic. We argue that the speed of the spread of an epidemic depends not only on the number of current infections, but also on their geographic distribution over a country. Through the observations of these phenomena we suggest a dependence of the final epidemic size on the geometric position of initial seeds of an epidemic process.

Pages: 409–417

Online Publication Date:  26 Mar 2022

Publication Date: 26 Mar 2022

Article Category: Research Article


Keywords: epidemic models; geometric networks; epidemic seeding; percolation; switchover phenomenon


Gergely Ódor (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne)
Domonkos Czifra (Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics)
Júlia Komjáthy (Eindhoven University of Technology)
László Lovász (Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics)
Márton Karsai (Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics, Central European University)